Just like the all of our first piece of proof, the major committee away from Contour 1 explores the average matrimony costs from the season for a few age range out-of widows (age fifty in order to 59 and you will 60 so you can 70) anywhere between 1968 and you can 1995. Towards 60- so you’re able to 70-year-olds , we reveal a decrease in the marriage rates after the 1977 passage of the law. This means that you to widows years 60 or earlier defer marriage ceremonies during the 1978 inside the anticipation of your legislation to get effective. matrimony cost for the widows between your ages of fifty and you can 59 are decreasing within the law changes, the questioned reaction to legislation change.
Panel A (descriptive studies) examines mediocre matrimony cost by chose ages 1968–1995 . Getting widows aged 60–70 , you will find a reduction in the remarriage price after the passageway of law in the 1977, indicating widows aged 60 or old put off marrying in 1978 from inside the expectation of one’s laws getting effective in 1979. There can be an increase in the fresh new elizabeth great at 1979, which implies you to a good number of female will have common so you’re able to get married, but don’t realize marriage at that time because of the punishment regarding the Social Security measures.
To possess widows years fifty–59 , matrimony prices refuse around the rules transform, producing the latest questioned a reaction to you to changes. Remember that other factors, for instance the complete lowering of relationship prices during this time, commonly accounted for.
Panel B (regression performance) supplies the regression outcome of focus. Throughout times, the marriage pricing to have widows under ages sixty is next less than the fresh standard year than the rate to have widows who will be from the the very least in the sixty. To possess widows below ages 60, legislation did not have extreme consequences.
Getting widows over age 60, the details show that into the 1977, its marrying price is actually dos per cent below the baseline seasons, and in 1978 (the year legislation try introduced) the marriage speed is 13 percent less than brand new standard 12 months. Those individuals rates are statistically distinct from both during the 6 % top, giving support to the chance one to widows over age sixty delayed relationship until the matrimony punishment try removed. In the 1979 (the entire year legislation turned into effective) the marriage price is 20 percent highest at the baseline-the greatest self-confident deviation regarding the sample several months. (Complete regression results are available in Appendix Dining table step 1.)
Notes: The new numerator is the weighted quantity of marriages regarding years classification and you may seasons away from claims which were throughout the MRA having most of the ages between 1968 and you may 1995 and this stated past marital updates to their relationships permits. The fresh new denominator is the amount of widows regarding the years category and you will seasons in most states. Get a hold of Appendix Dining table step one to have home elevators coefficients and you will simple errors.
ln ( marriage rate age , year ) = ? + ? ? ( year ) + ? ? ( year * at least age 60 dummy age , year ) + ? ? ( age ) + ? , where < age>
All of our mer centered varying ‘s the sheer diary away from single-age and 12 months marriage prices having 50 so you’re able to 70 yr old widows. We regress the diary marriage rate towards season dummies, omitting 1968; an interacting with each other label ranging from on a yearly basis and you may an effective dummy to possess if the marriage speed is actually for female at the least years sixty; and you can, dummies for each and every age classification, omitting this-fifty class. Which have twenty-eight years of investigation and you will 21 age groups we have 588 observations.